Species Distribution Modeling of Potential Invasion of Dwarf Honey Bee, Apis florea Fab., to Africa and Europe after Occurrence in Egypt in View of Climatic Changes

Abou-Shaara, H. F.; Mahfouz, H. M.; Owayss, A. A.

doi:10.21608/jppp.2021.206735

Species Distribution Modeling of Potential Invasion of Dwarf Honey Bee, Apis florea Fab., to Africa and Europe after Occurrence in Egypt in View of Climatic Changes

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

¹ Dept. of Plant Prot., Fac. of Agric., Damanhour Univ., Damanhour, 22516, Egypt

² Dept. of Plant Prot., Fac. of Environ. Agric. Sci., Arish Univ., 45511, Egypt

³ Dept. of Plant Prot., Fac. of Agric., Fayoum Univ., 63514, Egypt

10.21608/jppp.2021.206735

Abstract

Recently, the dwarf honey bee (DB), Apis florea Fab, has invaded certain eastern parts of Egypt. DB is expected to invade other national localities and extends to international regions. The current study shades light on the ability of DB to spread through Egypt towards certain regions in Africa and southern Europe. Maxent, as a species distribution modeling software analysis, was applied combining with environmental variables of current and future circumstances, i.e. during 2050 up to 2070. The obtained maps predict the limited spread of DB via southern Europe, under current conditions, while supports the potential spread of DB across northern and western parts of Egypt within next few years. The futuristic maps emphasized the possible spread of DB towards southern Europe especially Spain and Portugal, while the wide invasion of DH in other European countries is not expected. Limited ability of DB to spread all over Africa is predictable, while, northern African regions are preferred. Possible consequences of the spread of DB into other regions are discussed.

Keywords